Mild Weekend with Light Precipitation Chances Christmas Eve

The weather pattern for Iowa over the next few days will be relatively calm, with mild conditions expected to return by Sunday. A surface high pressure ridge currently extending over Minnesota and Wisconsin is keeping the state cool, with temperatures in the single digits in parts of northern Iowa. A band of warm air aloft has brought clouds from the eastern Dakotas down to central Iowa, but no precipitation has been observed at the surface despite some radar returns. Even if any precipitation does manage to reach the ground, it is expected to be light flurries with no significant impact.

From today through Sunday, winds will shift to the south and begin to increase, making for breezy conditions by Sunday afternoon. This, coupled with weak ridging aloft, will promote a warming trend with highs reaching the 40s across the southwestern half of Iowa on Sunday. A compact but energetic 500 mb low will track eastward through Minnesota and Wisconsin Sunday night into Monday, but Iowa will remain dry as this system passes just north. Highs on Monday will be similar to Sunday’s, with another surface high pressure area moving through, keeping conditions generally mild.

Tuesday will bring a notable change as two troughs from the north and south begin to interact, potentially leading to surface cyclogenesis in the southern U.S. As this system moves northeastward toward Christmas Eve, there is a low chance (20-30%) that precipitation will reach southeastern Iowa. However, the dry air from the Upper Midwest could limit the northern extent of this precipitation, with some areas possibly experiencing light rain or no precipitation at all. Should precipitation occur, it is likely to be light rain rather than snow, though there could be brief snow flurries if temperatures fall below freezing.

After Christmas, a more pronounced 500 mb low will form over the TX/OK panhandle, leading to an active weather pattern for the end of the week. Multiple troughs will move through, bringing chances for precipitation from Thursday through the weekend. While rain is the most likely precipitation type, confidence in the forecast is low due to differences in model solutions, and details will need to be refined as the systems evolve.

For aviation, the cloud cover that moved in this morning will persist through much of the day, with the stratus deck moving north and northeast. By late afternoon, the cloud deck is expected to lift to MVFR conditions. Some sites, such as KDSM and KFOD, may experience a scattered deck as the cloud shield moves eastward, while other sites will remain MVFR overnight. Confidence in the improvement to VFR is about 50% for the northeast, and trends will be monitored for further adjustments in future TAFs.

Stay tuned for updates as the weather pattern shifts and Christmas approaches, especially regarding the potential for precipitation and changes in temperatures.

Flurries Tonight, Mild Weekend Ahead

Today, Iowa saw a few flakes flying, but the snow should continue to dwindle as the atmosphere dries out. Overcast skies have kept temperatures in the 20s, with stratus clouds being slow to exit, particularly in the southeast. As the strong upper-level jet moves out, a shortwave follows behind, which could bring some light snow to the northwest. However, with limited moisture in the low levels, the snow will likely be light flurries, and the models are struggling to produce any meaningful precipitation. The confidence for snow in northern Iowa tonight is low (<20%).

Temperatures will remain cool through Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 20s in the northeast, and around 30 in the rest of the state. While the skies will struggle to clear in the northeast, the rest of the state will experience mostly cloudy conditions.

Looking ahead, a zonal flow pattern will take hold for the weekend, with south-southwest flow bringing milder temperatures by Sunday and Monday. Highs will climb into the 40s, well above the seasonal average for this time of year. This will create a mild and dry period for Iowa.

There are still slight chances for precipitation toward the latter part of the week, including early Christmas morning. However, the moisture and better forcing are expected to remain south and east of Iowa, so any precipitation is expected to be light, with less than a tenth of an inch of liquid. The confidence in these precipitation chances has decreased to around 15%.

Looking further ahead, after Christmas, models are showing some potential for another trough, with a 40% chance that it could bring more precipitation to the region. However, it is too far out to determine its exact impact, so we will continue to monitor the situation.

For aviation, the clearing skies will take longer to reach eastern Iowa, with MVFR conditions expected to persist at KOTM until later tonight. Meanwhile, other airports like KDSM, KFOD, and KMCW are starting to see some improvement. Flurries are possible, but they will be sparse and unlikely to impact operations significantly. VFR conditions are expected to return by early Saturday, with winds shifting from northwest to variable overnight, then becoming northeasterly in the morning.

Iowa Weather Update: Slick Roads, Snow Chances, and Strong Winds Expected

This morning, flurries across Iowa will begin to wind down, but slick roads are expected in northern and central Iowa due to refreezing after overnight sub-freezing temperatures. Travel impacts are expected, particularly for the morning commute, as residual snow from yesterday’s storm may cause slippery spots. Temperatures will be cooler today, with highs ranging from the mid-20s in the north to the mid-30s in the south. Winds will decrease as surface high pressure settles into the state, although pesky morning clouds may linger before drier air arrives in the afternoon.

Attention will then shift to an active northwest flow and embedded shortwave moving across the Upper Midwest. This system, currently in the Pacific Northwest, will track southeast through the Dakotas tonight and into Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin on Thursday. Northern Iowa will see light snow accumulation, particularly in the morning hours, with up to 0.1 inch of liquid expected. While the snow accumulation is expected to stay under an inch for most areas, there’s a 20-30 percent chance of higher amounts in northern and northeastern Iowa. The main concern for Thursday will be the strong winds following the cold frontal passage, with gusts reaching 35-45 mph, especially west of I-35. This could lead to blowing snow in rural areas, so those traveling on Thursday should be prepared for possible reduced visibility.

Thursday will bring slightly warmer temperatures, but gusty winds will make it feel colder. Winds will ease Thursday night into Friday as a high-pressure system brings in even colder air, with Friday expected to be the coldest day of the week, with highs ranging from the teens in the north to the upper 20s in the south. A brief period of flurries or light snow is possible on Saturday, but precipitation is expected to be minimal, with little to no impacts anticipated.

Looking ahead to next week, the pattern will shift toward warmer temperatures as a more zonal flow develops. This will bring milder conditions into the Christmas holiday week, with above-normal temperatures likely. The extended outlook shows an 80-90 percent chance of above-average temperatures, so those planning travel or outdoor activities can expect a break from the cold.

For aviation, scattered to broken stratus will affect flight conditions this afternoon into the evening, with conditions varying between IFR, MVFR, and VFR. By Thursday morning, light snow will return to northern Iowa, reducing visibility to around 1-2 miles, especially around KMCW. Further south, snow chances are low and won't significantly impact flight conditions at this time. VFR conditions are expected to return for most of the overnight period.

Stay tuned for further updates as conditions change, especially for Thursday’s snow and wind event.

Light Snow and Winds Forecasted for Iowa Midweek

This week, Iowa is experiencing a mix of light snow, winds, and fluctuating temperatures. Starting today, the state is seeing light snow in the northern regions, with some light precipitation in the south. A weak system moving across Wyoming is causing clouds and snow across the northern and central portions of Iowa, with snow accumulation generally expected to stay under 1 inch in most areas. The northern tier may see slightly higher accumulations, especially near the Iowa-Minnesota border. Snowfall in the southern part of the state is expected to be minimal, with some light rain or snow in places, leaving only a dusting behind.

The system is expected to bring a weak cold front into the area, ushering in cooler temperatures by this evening. Winds will shift to the northwest tonight, with gusts reaching up to 25 mph, causing minor blowing snow in northern Iowa, particularly after midnight. Temperatures will drop overnight, with lows ranging from the mid-teens in the north to the upper 20s in the southeast. By Wednesday, high pressure will begin to settle over the region, leading to a brief reprieve from precipitation. The colder air will settle in, with highs for Wednesday ranging from the lower 20s in the north to the mid-30s in the south.

Looking ahead to Thursday, a more robust clipper system will bring snow and gusty winds. This system will move across northern South Dakota early Thursday morning and track southeast to the Iowa-Minnesota border by late afternoon. Snow will be concentrated in the northern parts of Iowa, with potential for light snow accumulations. As the system moves through, northwest winds will intensify, reaching 35 to 45 mph in some areas, particularly in the west and southeast portions of the state. This could lead to hazardous travel conditions, and wind-related headlines may be issued for the region. The colder air behind this system will bring a significant drop in temperatures, with highs on Thursday only reaching the upper 20s to low 30s, and the region will experience even colder temperatures through Friday and Saturday.

Looking further into the weekend, another weak clipper system may pass through the northern Plains, potentially bringing light snow, although the details remain uncertain. The models suggest that colder air will dominate for much of the weekend before a gradual warming trend takes over. By the end of next week, temperatures could rise into the 40s and possibly even the 50s, making for a mild end to the month.

For aviation, light snow is expected to continue in northern Iowa today, creating MVFR conditions and reduced visibility, especially in areas like KFOD, KMCW, and KALO. While these conditions are expected to improve by Wednesday morning, pilots should anticipate breezy northwest winds and the possibility of temporary IFR conditions later this evening due to snow and low visibility. Generally, conditions will improve to VFR by Wednesday morning as the system moves out and the northwest winds strengthen.

As always, travelers and those affected by the weather should stay informed, as conditions are expected to evolve quickly throughout the week.