Light snow and rainfall expected across Iowa this week
This week, Iowa will experience a mix of weather conditions, starting with light rain and snow early Tuesday into Wednesday. Northern regions may see minor snow accumulations, while southern areas are more likely to experience rain. The state will also face another round of light snow on Thursday as a system passes through the Midwest, particularly impacting northern and eastern Iowa. While snow accumulations are expected to be minimal, the forecast calls for conditions that will change quickly, making it a good idea to stay updated on local weather alerts.
The current weather pattern began with slow-dissipating early morning fog across Iowa, which finally cleared by midday on Monday, leaving behind mostly clear skies. West-northwest winds have picked up due to a passing PV anomaly, with gusts reaching up to 40 mph in some areas. These gusts have helped warm temperatures into the mid to upper 40s, well above seasonal norms. The wind and warmer temperatures are a sharp contrast to the cooler conditions expected by midweek as the front moves through.
Looking ahead to Tuesday, a shortwave will move across the region, bringing a mix of snow and rain. The primary precipitation axis will extend along and north of the Iowa-Minnesota border. Northern Iowa is likely to see snow, with up to an inch possible in some areas, while central and southern parts of the state may see light rain. The snow-to-rain transition will happen gradually, with snow ratios expected to be around 8-9:1 at the onset and improving to 12:1 towards the tail end of the event, ending early Wednesday morning. The system will bring less than a tenth of an inch of liquid equivalent precipitation, but temperatures will remain relatively mild for Tuesday.
Midweek will bring fluctuating temperatures. After a warm start to the week, the passage of the front on Wednesday will cool things down, followed by a brief warming trend on Thursday before another significant system brings colder air back into the region for the weekend. Highs will dip into the teens and 20s by Friday, with the possibility of a slight warm-up on Sunday as temperatures creep into the 30s.
Looking ahead to Thursday, a robust shortwave is set to move through the upper Midwest, increasing the likelihood of light snow accumulations. The most recent model runs show a consistent track for the surface low to move across the Dakotas and into Iowa. While most of the heavy snow will likely stay north in Minnesota, changes to the track of this system could shift the snow axis, so further updates are expected.
Finally, behind this system, colder air will settle in, and temperatures will take a dive for the weekend, with highs in the teens to 20s and a potential return to the 30s by Sunday.
For aviators, VFR conditions are expected throughout most of the state, with some areas experiencing MVFR stratus in the north as the system approaches. Low-level cloud cover may bring brief periods of MVFR conditions and light snow, particularly around the Mason City (KMCW) area. However, confidence remains low for widespread snow, and conditions should improve as the system clears by midweek.
