Mild, Cloudy Days Ahead with Rain Chances Late This Week

Short-Term Forecast (Tonight through Christmas Day)

Confidence: High

Iowa is entering a period of mild temperatures and cloudy weather. A surface trough currently stretching across parts of Iowa and Minnesota will push through today, bringing cooler air behind it. While temperatures are still in the mid-30s to upper 30s across the state, a weak cold front will move through and slightly lower temperatures for tomorrow, but no major precipitation or strong winds are expected.

Tonight, as a high-pressure system builds into the region, we’ll see stratus clouds moving in from the north. These clouds will likely linger for several days, making for a mostly gray Christmas period. There is also a chance of fog developing in some areas, particularly where the clouds haven’t yet reached. The fog may be dense in spots, especially in western and southern Iowa, but it is unlikely to cause major issues. Temperatures tonight will vary across the state: areas where the clouds remain will have slower temperature drops, while clear areas may experience radiational cooling, leading to cooler temperatures.

On Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, the cloud cover will persist, keeping temperatures stable with highs mainly in the 30s to low 40s. There will be little to no diurnal temperature variation, and while no precipitation is expected, the cloudy skies will make for a dreary holiday.

Long-Term Forecast (Thursday through Sunday)

Confidence: Medium

Later this week, the weather pattern will become more active, with rain chances returning. A series of weather systems will move through the Midwest, bringing multiple chances for rain between Thursday night and Saturday. The first system will emerge from the southern High Plains on Thursday and track across the Midwest, with the potential to bring rain to Iowa Thursday night or Friday. There is some uncertainty in the models, with differences in the track and strength of this system. The GFS model shows a stronger, more northern system, while the European model places the system further south.

Despite these uncertainties, it is highly likely that rain will move through Iowa between Thursday night and Saturday. The most likely period for rain is Friday, with precipitation expected to be mostly in the form of rain, given the above-normal temperatures and dewpoints above freezing. While the rain could lead to wet roads, no winter weather or hazardous conditions are expected at this time. The rain will likely be light to moderate, but travelers should be prepared for possible wet conditions.

Looking Ahead

Iowa will see generally mild temperatures and cloudy conditions through Christmas, with no significant precipitation expected. However, by the end of the week, rain chances will increase, and the weather pattern will become more active, particularly Thursday through Saturday. While temperatures will remain above normal, the rain could cause some minor travel disruptions, but there are no major winter weather concerns at this time. Stay tuned for further updates as we monitor the developing system later in the week.