Brief Warm-Up Followed by Arctic Cold This Weekend

Short-Term Forecast (Today through Friday)

Confidence: High

Cloud cover associated with a passing mid-level wave has helped keep temperatures from plummeting overnight, though it’s still been a chilly night, with temperatures in the single digits above and below zero. Light winds have helped mitigate wind chill concerns, but winds will pick up as the surface high moves eastward, bringing southerly winds toward daybreak. Wind chills could dip into the single digits and teens below zero this morning, but temperatures will recover into the mid 20s to near 30°F by the afternoon.

Later today, a shortwave moving through Minnesota and Wisconsin will clip the northern part of the state, bringing the possibility of light snow. While some lift may saturate the dendritic growth zone (DGZ), a dry sub-cloud layer will limit the intensity and coverage, so little to no accumulation is expected. Some flurries may occur further south, but snow should not be a significant concern.

Thursday and Friday will bring a brief warm-up, with highs reaching the 30s on Thursday and into the 40s on Friday. These mild conditions will be short-lived, as another Arctic cold front approaches.

Extended Forecast (Saturday through Next Week)

Confidence: High

A vigorous shortwave crossing the southern Canadian prairies will carve out a deep longwave trough, dislodging a cold airmass back into the U.S. The initial cold front will push through Iowa late Friday, ushering in a period of cold air advection (CAA) that will continue throughout the weekend. High temperatures on Sunday and Monday will struggle to reach the single digits, with wind chills likely ranging from -10°F to -20°F or colder, especially in northern Iowa.

While the air will be extremely dry and moisture-starved, making snowfall unlikely, the bitter cold will be the primary concern. Wind chill advisories are becoming more likely, particularly in the northern parts of the state, where dangerously cold conditions will pose a risk to exposed skin.

Temperatures will start to recover toward the middle of next week as the cold airmass erodes and heights aloft build, but expect a few more days of cold before the thaw.