Flurries Tonight, Mild Weekend Ahead
Today, Iowa saw a few flakes flying, but the snow should continue to dwindle as the atmosphere dries out. Overcast skies have kept temperatures in the 20s, with stratus clouds being slow to exit, particularly in the southeast. As the strong upper-level jet moves out, a shortwave follows behind, which could bring some light snow to the northwest. However, with limited moisture in the low levels, the snow will likely be light flurries, and the models are struggling to produce any meaningful precipitation. The confidence for snow in northern Iowa tonight is low (<20%).
Temperatures will remain cool through Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 20s in the northeast, and around 30 in the rest of the state. While the skies will struggle to clear in the northeast, the rest of the state will experience mostly cloudy conditions.
Looking ahead, a zonal flow pattern will take hold for the weekend, with south-southwest flow bringing milder temperatures by Sunday and Monday. Highs will climb into the 40s, well above the seasonal average for this time of year. This will create a mild and dry period for Iowa.
There are still slight chances for precipitation toward the latter part of the week, including early Christmas morning. However, the moisture and better forcing are expected to remain south and east of Iowa, so any precipitation is expected to be light, with less than a tenth of an inch of liquid. The confidence in these precipitation chances has decreased to around 15%.
Looking further ahead, after Christmas, models are showing some potential for another trough, with a 40% chance that it could bring more precipitation to the region. However, it is too far out to determine its exact impact, so we will continue to monitor the situation.
For aviation, the clearing skies will take longer to reach eastern Iowa, with MVFR conditions expected to persist at KOTM until later tonight. Meanwhile, other airports like KDSM, KFOD, and KMCW are starting to see some improvement. Flurries are possible, but they will be sparse and unlikely to impact operations significantly. VFR conditions are expected to return by early Saturday, with winds shifting from northwest to variable overnight, then becoming northeasterly in the morning.
