Mild Weekend with Light Precipitation Chances Christmas Eve

The weather pattern for Iowa over the next few days will be relatively calm, with mild conditions expected to return by Sunday. A surface high pressure ridge currently extending over Minnesota and Wisconsin is keeping the state cool, with temperatures in the single digits in parts of northern Iowa. A band of warm air aloft has brought clouds from the eastern Dakotas down to central Iowa, but no precipitation has been observed at the surface despite some radar returns. Even if any precipitation does manage to reach the ground, it is expected to be light flurries with no significant impact.

From today through Sunday, winds will shift to the south and begin to increase, making for breezy conditions by Sunday afternoon. This, coupled with weak ridging aloft, will promote a warming trend with highs reaching the 40s across the southwestern half of Iowa on Sunday. A compact but energetic 500 mb low will track eastward through Minnesota and Wisconsin Sunday night into Monday, but Iowa will remain dry as this system passes just north. Highs on Monday will be similar to Sunday’s, with another surface high pressure area moving through, keeping conditions generally mild.

Tuesday will bring a notable change as two troughs from the north and south begin to interact, potentially leading to surface cyclogenesis in the southern U.S. As this system moves northeastward toward Christmas Eve, there is a low chance (20-30%) that precipitation will reach southeastern Iowa. However, the dry air from the Upper Midwest could limit the northern extent of this precipitation, with some areas possibly experiencing light rain or no precipitation at all. Should precipitation occur, it is likely to be light rain rather than snow, though there could be brief snow flurries if temperatures fall below freezing.

After Christmas, a more pronounced 500 mb low will form over the TX/OK panhandle, leading to an active weather pattern for the end of the week. Multiple troughs will move through, bringing chances for precipitation from Thursday through the weekend. While rain is the most likely precipitation type, confidence in the forecast is low due to differences in model solutions, and details will need to be refined as the systems evolve.

For aviation, the cloud cover that moved in this morning will persist through much of the day, with the stratus deck moving north and northeast. By late afternoon, the cloud deck is expected to lift to MVFR conditions. Some sites, such as KDSM and KFOD, may experience a scattered deck as the cloud shield moves eastward, while other sites will remain MVFR overnight. Confidence in the improvement to VFR is about 50% for the northeast, and trends will be monitored for further adjustments in future TAFs.

Stay tuned for updates as the weather pattern shifts and Christmas approaches, especially regarding the potential for precipitation and changes in temperatures.