Mild, Cloudy Days Ahead with Rain Chances Late This Week

Short-Term Forecast (Tonight through Christmas Day)

Confidence: High

Iowa is entering a period of mild temperatures and cloudy weather. A surface trough currently stretching across parts of Iowa and Minnesota will push through today, bringing cooler air behind it. While temperatures are still in the mid-30s to upper 30s across the state, a weak cold front will move through and slightly lower temperatures for tomorrow, but no major precipitation or strong winds are expected.

Tonight, as a high-pressure system builds into the region, we’ll see stratus clouds moving in from the north. These clouds will likely linger for several days, making for a mostly gray Christmas period. There is also a chance of fog developing in some areas, particularly where the clouds haven’t yet reached. The fog may be dense in spots, especially in western and southern Iowa, but it is unlikely to cause major issues. Temperatures tonight will vary across the state: areas where the clouds remain will have slower temperature drops, while clear areas may experience radiational cooling, leading to cooler temperatures.

On Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, the cloud cover will persist, keeping temperatures stable with highs mainly in the 30s to low 40s. There will be little to no diurnal temperature variation, and while no precipitation is expected, the cloudy skies will make for a dreary holiday.

Long-Term Forecast (Thursday through Sunday)

Confidence: Medium

Later this week, the weather pattern will become more active, with rain chances returning. A series of weather systems will move through the Midwest, bringing multiple chances for rain between Thursday night and Saturday. The first system will emerge from the southern High Plains on Thursday and track across the Midwest, with the potential to bring rain to Iowa Thursday night or Friday. There is some uncertainty in the models, with differences in the track and strength of this system. The GFS model shows a stronger, more northern system, while the European model places the system further south.

Despite these uncertainties, it is highly likely that rain will move through Iowa between Thursday night and Saturday. The most likely period for rain is Friday, with precipitation expected to be mostly in the form of rain, given the above-normal temperatures and dewpoints above freezing. While the rain could lead to wet roads, no winter weather or hazardous conditions are expected at this time. The rain will likely be light to moderate, but travelers should be prepared for possible wet conditions.

Looking Ahead

Iowa will see generally mild temperatures and cloudy conditions through Christmas, with no significant precipitation expected. However, by the end of the week, rain chances will increase, and the weather pattern will become more active, particularly Thursday through Saturday. While temperatures will remain above normal, the rain could cause some minor travel disruptions, but there are no major winter weather concerns at this time. Stay tuned for further updates as we monitor the developing system later in the week.

Mild Days Ahead with Rain Chances Later This Week

Short-Term Forecast (Tonight through Monday Night)

Confidence: High

The next few days will be generally quiet, with milder temperatures moving in as a warm front lifts across the state. Currently, a weak low pressure system over the Dakotas is bringing much milder air into the region. By this evening, the warm front will be northeast of Iowa, and while moisture remains scarce over much of the nation, a narrow ribbon of weak moisture moving northward could bring some light precipitation to the northern parts of the state overnight. However, the moisture is expected to be minimal, and any precipitation that does reach the ground will be very light—just a few flurries with no significant accumulation.

Lows tonight will be mild, ranging from the mid-20s in the northwest to the mid-30s in the southeast. Winds will shift to the northwest tomorrow, bringing slightly cooler air into the region, and cloud cover will likely persist through the day. Highs on Monday will be similar to Sunday, ranging from the low 30s in the north to the mid-40s in the southeast. As Monday evening approaches, skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy, and overnight lows will drop into the upper teens to mid-20s.

Long-Term Forecast (Tuesday through Sunday)

Confidence: Low to Medium

The weather pattern for the remainder of the week will be mild but mostly cloudy. A weak high-pressure system will move over the region early Tuesday, but a trough aloft will keep cloud cover in place. There’s a chance of rain for southeastern Iowa Tuesday afternoon and night as a system passes southeast of the state, but much of Iowa will remain dry with just extensive cloud cover.

Christmas Day itself will be quiet, with continued cloudiness. The next system to watch will arrive Thursday night into Friday, bringing better chances for moisture and a more significant precipitation event. While the system is expected to bring rain, the track of the storm is still somewhat uncertain, and the GFS and EC models differ on its exact path. Regardless, the Thursday-to-Sunday period looks wet, with persistent rain and the possibility of fog or lower visibility, especially in areas where snow cover from earlier in the week begins to melt. This could impact travel, so it’s important to stay updated on the latest weather conditions, particularly for travel across northern and eastern Iowa.

Temperatures for the remainder of the week will stay mild, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s, well above the seasonal average.

Aviation Forecast (00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday)

Mostly VFR conditions for much of the forecast period, though northern Iowa may experience some MVFR ceilings on Monday. Winds will shift overnight, from the south to the west and then northwest as a low pressure system moves through northern Iowa. Precipitation will remain mostly to the north and northeast, with the best chance for any precipitation staying out of the main forecast area.

Looking Ahead

While the start of the week will be mild and quiet, prepare for wetter conditions toward the end of the week, particularly Thursday through Sunday, with rain and possibly fog or lower visibility. Temperatures will remain above normal, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s. Stay informed as we track the development of rain and fog, especially for those planning to travel during the holiday week.

Mild Weekend with Light Precipitation Chances Christmas Eve

The weather pattern for Iowa over the next few days will be relatively calm, with mild conditions expected to return by Sunday. A surface high pressure ridge currently extending over Minnesota and Wisconsin is keeping the state cool, with temperatures in the single digits in parts of northern Iowa. A band of warm air aloft has brought clouds from the eastern Dakotas down to central Iowa, but no precipitation has been observed at the surface despite some radar returns. Even if any precipitation does manage to reach the ground, it is expected to be light flurries with no significant impact.

From today through Sunday, winds will shift to the south and begin to increase, making for breezy conditions by Sunday afternoon. This, coupled with weak ridging aloft, will promote a warming trend with highs reaching the 40s across the southwestern half of Iowa on Sunday. A compact but energetic 500 mb low will track eastward through Minnesota and Wisconsin Sunday night into Monday, but Iowa will remain dry as this system passes just north. Highs on Monday will be similar to Sunday’s, with another surface high pressure area moving through, keeping conditions generally mild.

Tuesday will bring a notable change as two troughs from the north and south begin to interact, potentially leading to surface cyclogenesis in the southern U.S. As this system moves northeastward toward Christmas Eve, there is a low chance (20-30%) that precipitation will reach southeastern Iowa. However, the dry air from the Upper Midwest could limit the northern extent of this precipitation, with some areas possibly experiencing light rain or no precipitation at all. Should precipitation occur, it is likely to be light rain rather than snow, though there could be brief snow flurries if temperatures fall below freezing.

After Christmas, a more pronounced 500 mb low will form over the TX/OK panhandle, leading to an active weather pattern for the end of the week. Multiple troughs will move through, bringing chances for precipitation from Thursday through the weekend. While rain is the most likely precipitation type, confidence in the forecast is low due to differences in model solutions, and details will need to be refined as the systems evolve.

For aviation, the cloud cover that moved in this morning will persist through much of the day, with the stratus deck moving north and northeast. By late afternoon, the cloud deck is expected to lift to MVFR conditions. Some sites, such as KDSM and KFOD, may experience a scattered deck as the cloud shield moves eastward, while other sites will remain MVFR overnight. Confidence in the improvement to VFR is about 50% for the northeast, and trends will be monitored for further adjustments in future TAFs.

Stay tuned for updates as the weather pattern shifts and Christmas approaches, especially regarding the potential for precipitation and changes in temperatures.

Flurries Tonight, Mild Weekend Ahead

Today, Iowa saw a few flakes flying, but the snow should continue to dwindle as the atmosphere dries out. Overcast skies have kept temperatures in the 20s, with stratus clouds being slow to exit, particularly in the southeast. As the strong upper-level jet moves out, a shortwave follows behind, which could bring some light snow to the northwest. However, with limited moisture in the low levels, the snow will likely be light flurries, and the models are struggling to produce any meaningful precipitation. The confidence for snow in northern Iowa tonight is low (<20%).

Temperatures will remain cool through Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 20s in the northeast, and around 30 in the rest of the state. While the skies will struggle to clear in the northeast, the rest of the state will experience mostly cloudy conditions.

Looking ahead, a zonal flow pattern will take hold for the weekend, with south-southwest flow bringing milder temperatures by Sunday and Monday. Highs will climb into the 40s, well above the seasonal average for this time of year. This will create a mild and dry period for Iowa.

There are still slight chances for precipitation toward the latter part of the week, including early Christmas morning. However, the moisture and better forcing are expected to remain south and east of Iowa, so any precipitation is expected to be light, with less than a tenth of an inch of liquid. The confidence in these precipitation chances has decreased to around 15%.

Looking further ahead, after Christmas, models are showing some potential for another trough, with a 40% chance that it could bring more precipitation to the region. However, it is too far out to determine its exact impact, so we will continue to monitor the situation.

For aviation, the clearing skies will take longer to reach eastern Iowa, with MVFR conditions expected to persist at KOTM until later tonight. Meanwhile, other airports like KDSM, KFOD, and KMCW are starting to see some improvement. Flurries are possible, but they will be sparse and unlikely to impact operations significantly. VFR conditions are expected to return by early Saturday, with winds shifting from northwest to variable overnight, then becoming northeasterly in the morning.